Analyze ordered observations for forecasting and anomaly detection. Practice temporal validation, missing-data handling, and simple baselines, including a weara
Last reviewed: 2026-10-03
Time-series analysis studies observations in temporal order. Forecasting and anomaly detection need evaluation that keeps future information out of training. Compare with a relevant simple baseline and document sampling intervals, missing values, seasonality, and the prediction horizon.
For a biometric-signal exercise, use permitted or synthetic wearable observations and inspect sampling, motion artifacts, and person-level grouping. Keep recordings from the same person separated when evaluating generalization to new people. This is signal-analysis practice, not clinical interpretation or a health recommendation.
No: numeric forecasting remains its own discipline, though time-series foundation models now join the toolkit. LLMs help around the edges: feature ideation, report narration, anomaly explanation.
Leakage and vanity baselines: validating with future information, or beating a strawman instead of seasonal-naive. Rigorous backtesting discipline is the entire credibility of the craft.